Extreme Rules Preview & Predictions, 2012

Extreme Rules, 29/04/2012, from the All State Arena, Chicago, IL

Extreme Rules, 29/04/2012, from the All State Arena, Chicago, IL

Chicago audiences are amongst the best in the world, and among the very best in the US. Passionate and loud, they are an extra performer in any wrestling show, and invariably, one that improves the show. It’s just a shame that Chicago’s favourite son, and the crowd’s most over babyface generally, almost certainly wont be in the main event and isn’t featured on the poster. I understand it, but it doesn’t make it right. But I shouldn’t rant on Lesnar just yet. His match with John Cena is a bonafide attraction, even if it’s not one i’m personally too interested in. I’ll be live-tweeting the event, so follow me for that, and more personal insight @RTVWOW!

Preshow) United States Championship Match: Santino Marella (c) vs The Miz
This is a fairly new feature to WWE, and obviously it has a different function to the other matches, to whet the appetite for people undecided as to whether to buy the PPV and to get the crowd hot, and that affects somewhat the booking, and therefore, the predictions for the match. The other primary aspect of pediction is what is currently happening to The Miz. The former WWE Champion and ‘Next Big Thing’ (pardon the pun) now finds himself struggling to make PPV, to get wins, and to get anywhere near the title picture. His cause hasn’t been helped by starts like The Rock or Brock Lesnar returning, but it also is a possibility that Miz’s downfall is to be used as a storyline. He had a resurgence at WrestleMania, getting the pin to establish ‘People Power’ under John Laurinaitis, but he’s again disappeared. Perhaps this is all leading to a response from The Miz that will see him re-surge to the top, possibly – possibly – as a babyface. I don’t think that starts with him taking the US title from the hugely beloved Santino Marella; it would just be more middling for The Miz. Not only that, but remember the function of the match. If they want a hot crowd, get the babyface over; if they want to whet the appetite, have a championship match, not a championship changing hands. So because it’s essentially a dark match for the PPV, and because they don’t want to give away a championship change for free, I see a Santino retention here. I have no idea how, but I hope it isn’t clean via Cobra! Now the only question here is, do I include this in my prediction stats, it being a preshow match. I suspect that will depend on how right I am!

Santino Marella

Match 1) Falls Count Anywhere Match: Randy Orton vs Kane
I mentioned on twitter how hard I was finding picking the opening bout, and was close to predicting Punk-Jericho. In the end, I plumped for this match because of the Randy Orton pop being a strong enough start to the PPV. As for the match, I have among the least to say about it. I’ve said before that Orton is the inheritor of the Shawn Michaels ability to not put on a bad match, and like at WrestleMania, i’m sure this will be a good match for what it will be: brawling. I think the real success of the match will hang on the inventiveness of the booking outside of the ring. If they do unique things backstage and really push the boat out, it could be great; if it doesn’t go far beyond the ring, it could be disappointing. I think the result is pretty clear. After losing at Mania, I don’t see Orton losing this match. This should be the end of this feud, which has really ran out of material I think, and so Orton should win, and move on. That doesn’t rule out a swerve of course, as happened (arguably) at WrestleMania, but I see less value in Kane going over this time now that he has a high-profile victory over Orton.

Winner: Randy Orton

Match 2) Intercontinental Championship with Stipulation To Be Determined By Roulette Wheel: Big Show (c) vs Cody Rhodes
Since Rhodes dropped the title to Big Show at WrestleMania, the value of both Rhodes and the championship has depreciated, and that in itself suggests that Rhodes re-winning the title would be the right way to go. I don’t see it happening though, not to the Big Show. I’d be pleased, but it doesn’t mean as much for Cody as a win at WrestleMania would, and the bright side is that if he loses, he can move towards the spot he deserves – the World Title picture. The quality of the match of course depends on what stipulation it is given, and, though there is absolutely no real logic to this, I have a feeling it’ll be a goofy stipulation rather than an ‘extreme’ one – something like a pillow fight. It would be a shame for the wrestling purist, but there would be a plus side. It would give Rhodes an excuse of sorts for the loss while giving Show a stipulation he can have a bit of fun with (e.g. WMD through pillow). Of course, they could be given a cage match or something, which would be pretty cool, but whatever happens, I doubt it’ll affect the result.

Winner: The Big Show

Match 3) 2 Out of 3 Falls Match for the World Heavyweight Championship: Sheamus (c) vs Daniel Bryan
The most immediate thing i’d like to say about this is that Daniel Bryan will be the de fact babyface here, and Sheamus the heel, just because of the crowd. This match could be absolutely great is the second thing i’ll say. 2 out of 3 falls matches always invite interesting booking, and there’s a lot to play off between these two, especially with the 18 second loss at WrestleMania. I don’t think we’ll get a 36 second retention here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the champion gets the first first fall in up to 18 seconds. It would be a nice echo of their recent psychology without actually costing Bryan the match early. After that, obviously Bryan will get fall 2, and I think it will be relatively clean, though a lot of that depends on it there are any DQ’s. If so, Bryan might try and get himself a DQ fall, if not, he might to it via weapon. Although falls are easier to come by in these matches, I can’t see Sheamus going down straight up to any Bryan offense, so it’ll be interesting to see how it comes about. I like what Seth Mates has suggested for the third fall, especially after what Bryan did to Sheamus on RAW, that Bryan becomes obsessed with making Sheamus tap out to one of his 100+ submissions (as acknowledged by WWE announcers) and in so doing, ends up losing the final fall. That would make Bryan look great, while explaining his loss. Whatever happens, this will be one of the best matches on the card. I can’t see Sheamus losing though – they’ll want to get him over as a champ against Del Rio going forward.

Winner: Sheamus

Match 4) Divas Championship Match: Nikki Bella (c) vs Beth Phoenix
I am very vocal in my praise for the Bellas. As twins, they make a unique attraction and are underrated as wrestlers (I also unashamedly really, really fancy them), and I think Nikki would make a good champion. Unfortunately for her, this match has nothing to do with her. The return of Kharma has been much anticipated, and we saw at the Royal Rumble four months ago that she was on her way back. It seems Nikki Bella has the title so that Beth Phoenix doesn’t have to lose it to the returning Kharma, and that makes sense. It seems the story will be Nikki retains against the injured Phoenix before Kharma reappears and destroys Nikki with Beth looking on. Kharma actually has unfinished business with the Bellas after the way they berated her when she left, so I see Kharma getting the belt back at Over the Limit, dominating the diva scene before a Phoenix return for the dream feud we’ve all been waiting for can begin. Letting Nikki keep the belt for a month will also make Kharma’s victory seem a little more meaningful (though that all depends on The Bellas’ contract status). For what it’s worth, it’d be nice to see Nikki and Beth having some time for a good match; it would be good for everyone: It makes Beth look brave and strong, fighting through her injury, while Nikki will be allowed a good victory on PPV, which again will benefit Kharma when she eventually wins the title.

Match 5) Chicago Street Fight for the WWE Championship: CM Punk (c) vs Chris Jericho
This, again, is obviously the match i’ll be most looking forward too. This will be a brawl more than a traditional, scientific wrestling match like at WrestleMania, but I trust these two to make gold of anything. One of my favourite moments ever is watching Punk emerge to face John Cena in Chicago last year to a thunderous ovation. This will happen again, and that is a great thing. I have no idea what to expect from the match itself, but their feud is personal, that if they can fight with that urgency, it will be fantastic. That is easy to predict, what isn’t so easy is the winner. Jericho certainly could win, but then either Punk would just win the title back, rendering it a little needless, or Lesnar would challenge him (see next match prediction) and that would be a heel vs heel feud with no build. So what is Punk wins? Does Jericho win another battle royal to get in the title picture? Maybe. Wrestling can facilitate anything, but it would be quite cynical to do it two months in a row. Would Lesnar take on and beat Punk for the title? After Lesnar is down with Cena, the only thing it would make sense for him to pursue would be the Championship. That could be great, but I don’t know how wise it would be to have Lesnar go over Punk with ease. These are some of  the calculations in the complicated title picture, but it makes it hard to predict. Ultimately, despite WWE’s history of jobbing out home town stars, I just can’t see them doing it to Punk in Chicago. If it is Lesnar’s destiny to take the title, Punk will need the best reign possible before dropping it, and at the least, dropping it to Lesnar is better than dropping it to most other heels on the roster just because of his monster-esque booking and a feud with him could allow Punk to flourish on the mic, especially since it seems he has some shoots in hand for Lesnar. All this nonsense aside, the match in hand will no-doubt steal the show, especially with Punk’s family to be at ringside. They are a big part of the feud, and as master psychologists, Punk and Jericho will make the most of it before handing Punk another memorable victory.

Winner: CM Punk

Match 6) Extreme Rules Match: John Cena vs Brock Lesnar
I’m intrigued by this match, but I wouldn’t say i’m looking forward to it. I’ve made my feelings about Brock Lesnar abundantly clear both here and on twitter (@RTVWOW), and I don’t relish seeing him wrestle, especially in those goofy MMA-inspired shorts which suggest its only real when it’s Lesnar. As usual, Cena is handling this all brilliantly, and it’s been refreshing seeing the attitude adjustments (cheap pop) in Cena’s character – even showing straight fear for the first time in pretty much ever. For some reason though, i’m just not pumped for the match. I think it’s partly because the result seems so sure, and also because of my worry that Lesnar will be doing MMA style grapples and beating the s**t out of Cena for a lot of the time. That style is not something I think lends itself to pro wrestling, and it isn’t one I want to see. The only result that makes any sense is Lesnar winning, and that’s fine; Cena going through a crisis of confidence is interesting, but Lesnar winning wont be of interest to me. Again, Seth Mates has come up with the sort of scenario which makes me wish he was still on WWE Creative: that after Lesnar eventually, inevitably decimates Cena, Cena is either written off TV through injury, or simply by ‘walking away’ in shame and a lack of confidence. Lesnar goes on to run rampant while Cena takes a much deserved rest until finally Cena returns to a huge reaction to save the day. It would be genuinely different and surely not that much of a risk with people like Punk, Orton and Sheamus around on the babyface side. That’s all wishful thinking though; lets just hope something more interesting than Brock Lesnar = beast that’s always on our TV happens.

Winner: Brock Lesnar

With the crowd on it’s side, I expect this PPV to be a big hit for the most part, and who knows, if the crowd is hot enough, I may even enjoy the main event (which shouldn’t be the main event) more than expected! One more time, for live tweets and more, follow @RTVWOW on twitter!

 

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